2008 Golden Globes speculation thread

OK, tomorrow, Thursday December 13th, the nominations for the 65th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be announced. Not quite as fun and certainly not as prestigious as The Academy Awards, but just the same.

Some of the difficulty in making Globe nominee predictions is you can never quite tell where some flicks will be slotted, either as Musical/Comedy or as Drama, but also more fun because you get to name twice as many actors and films. For a refresher on what they nominated and selected last year, clicky HERE.

So, giving it the ol' college try (and just sticking with the feature film categories)...


BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
American Gangster
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men

BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Hairspray
I'm Not There
Juno
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Russell Crowe, American Gangster
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War
Charlize Theron, In the Valley of Elah

BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Heath Ledger, I'm Not There
Jack Nicholson, The Bucket List

BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Katherine Heigl, Knocked Up
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
Ellen Page, Juno

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
John Travolta, Hairspray
Christopher Walken, Hairspray
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE
Amy Adams, Charlie Wilson's War
Lauren Ambrose, Starting Out in the Evening
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Meryl Streep, Lions for Lambs
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

BEST DIRECTOR, MOTION PICTURE
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson's War
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Ridley Scott, American Gangster

BEST SCREENPLAY, MOTION PICTURE
Charlie Wilson's War, Aaron Sorkin
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Ronald Harwood
I'm Not There, Todd Haynes & Oren Moverman
Juno, Diablo Cody
Michael Clayton, Tony Gilroy



Throw it against the wall, see what sticks!

__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

No other takers? Come one, we don't have any money on this.

I haven't really even thought about, but doesn't the Foreign Press have a Best "Foreign Film" category? If, so I would think that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly would fit in there, so maybe Atonement would take its place in the Best Drama Category. I hope they put Ratatouille somewhere, so if they deem it a comedy (it's damn funny), it had better take over for POTC 3. I would personally be happy if all those Hairspray noms came through because I was shocked how entertaining that flick was, but I doubt they will. (Holden, did you see it yet?) I'm not sure what their take on American Gangster will be, but I'm guessing it will be less than what you've got it up for. I'm also thinking that There Will Be Blood will be better represented, but it's tough to figure out how those 88 (or whatever the current number is) foreign press-type people will vote. The shocking thing is how much influence such a small group has.

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Ah, yes, got carried away. I was still in Oscar-guessing mode. Foreign-Language films don't qualify for Best Drama and Best Musical/Comedy, you're right. Even if they are made in the U.S., such as last year's Letters from Iwo Jima. Quite right.

I agree, I'll swap out Atonement for that one. And I'm just leaving There Will Be Blood off of some major categories to get some other more varied guesses in there, but I suspect it will do well, too.

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/ap/2...756502000.html

^^ Nominations list

Atonement ended up in the drama category as well as six others, including actor and actress for McAvoy and Knightley.

__________________
"As I was walking up the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there.
He wasn't there again today,
I wish, I wish he'd go away."
-From Identity

OK, I've got a thread for the nominations and comments on them HERE.

I didn't do too badly, though I guessed wrong that they'd make Charlie Wilson's War a Drama instead of a Comedy, and I wish I knew they were going to expand to SEVEN films for the Best Drama category this year (THAT would have made guessing even easier). But what I did get correct...

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA (4/5)
American Gangster, Atonement, Michael Clayton and No Country for Old Men

I actually only got four out of seven, but I only guessed five, so...yeah. I had a feeling The Globes were going to go for Ridley Scott's American Gangster in a way that I don't think The Oscars will. Though time will tell. If I knew there were seven slots I definitely would have made room for There Will Be Blood, and if you had given me twelve guesses I wouldn't have listed Oprah Winfrey/Denzel Washington's The Great Debaters.


BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY (3½/5)
Hairspray, Juno and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

I didn't figure they'd fallen as hard as they did for Julie Taymor's Beatles Musical Across the Universe, especially over Todd Haynes' Bob Dylan pic I'm Not There, and I should have figured Charlie Wilson's War would be slotted as a Comedy to make room on the Drama list, which is where I had it.


BEST ACTOR, DRAMA (3/5)
George Clooney as Michael Clayton, Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood and Denzel Washington as the American Gangster

I came so close to putting McAvoy and Viggo in my final five, but I couldn't decide between Denzel and Crowe in Gangster so I left them both, and I thought they might get one foreign language performance in the Actor category...but they did that for Actress (so I guessed wrong).


BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA (3/5)
Julie Christie in Away from Her, Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart and Keira Knightley in Atonement

Since Elizabeth: The Golden Age got such horrid reviews I didn't figure they'd go for Blanchett in that but make room for her as Supporting Actress in I'm Not There. Whoops.


BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL OR COMEDY (2/5)
Johnny Depp as Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street and Ryan Gosling in Lars and the Real Girl

I'm glad Depp didn't get double-nominated for the third Pirates movie, but they had nominated him for the first two Jack Sparrows, and the one last year for the sequel was just as uninspired. But I'm glad, just the same. Had I put Charlie Wilson's War as a Comedy, then of course Hanks becomes a lock in this category (I had pushed him out of the Actor, Drama list). And after Sasha won last year for Borat, I almost pulled the trigger on Dewey Cox...but didn't.


BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL OR COMEDY (3/5)
Nikki Blonsky in Hairspray, Helena Bonham Carter in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street and Ellen Page as Juno

I went with Heigel over Amy Adams in my picks and even if I had gone with Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose, despite the singing I would have classified it as a Drama performance (this is where the Globes get a bit silly, where a couple years ago Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon's work in Walk the Line was put in the Musical categories instead of Drama...you know, because they do sing).


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE (4/5)
Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson's War, John Travolta in Hairspray and Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton

Didn't even go back and forth on any of the names, really, those were the five that seemed most likely to me. I really thought they were going to go for Christopher Walken over Casey Affleck, but I'm glad Casey got the nod. I think this was a stand-out year for him, and though he was a bit better to me as the lead in Gone Baby Gone that Actor category is always full of superstars...which Casey isn't quite yet himself (though with more years like this one he'll get there).


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE (2/5)
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There and Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

This is a category I really tried to play around with and make some longshot guesses, even leaving off Amy Ryan who has already won many awards early on for her great work in Gone Baby Gone. The longshots did not pay off. Though I should have guessed they'd slot Julia Roberts as a supporting player for Charlie Wilson. I went with Amy Adams in a truly smaller and supporting role in that flick, and not the female role with the most import and screentime (silly me). And I came oh so close to picking Saoirse Ronan. I was trying to think, 'What child actor will make the cut this year? What about the lying brat from Atonement?'...but I talked myself out of it.


BEST DIRECTOR, MOTION PICTURE (4/5)
Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Joel & Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men, Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and Ridley Scott for American Gangster

The one I got wrong is Mike Nichols over Atonement's Joe Wright. Nichols is more of an Academy darling than a Hollywood Foreign Press Association one, but I thought they might go for him. And I didn't think they'd go for Paul Thomas Anderson, but that was juts a gut feeling.


BEST SCREENPLAY, MOTION PICTURE (3/5)
Charlie Wilson's War by Aaron Sorkin, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly by Ronald Harwood and Juno by Diablo Cody

I left the Coen Brothers off my list just because I wanted to get another kind of guess in there, but they didn't go for I'm Not There. And they went with Atonement over Michael Clayton.



Overall, not bad. And since nobody else wanted to make picks, I win.

Hey, Holden, there's a flaw in your list. In the Best Supporting Actor category, Casey Affleck got a nom for Jesse James over Christopher Walken in Hairspray.

Whoopsie-Daisy! You're right.

And I still win.