He still throws with plenty of zip on some passes and his arm strength tests as good as ever. Maybe that's not the same, I don't know.
I'd be curious to know how those arm tests work. But I wouldn't expect it to be the same as in-game especially for an older player whose primary issue, you'd think, would be the wear and tear of the season.
I saw one of the highlights from last week's game and there was a throw with a little more oomph on it, and I thought, wow, haven't seen that in awhile. Then I realized how telling it was that I was surprised by even a moderately hard throw. So then I brought up some old highlights from a decade ago, and the difference was pretty stark. Especially on the move.
I had to look up those people, and I can't say I have any reason to value the opinion of Schatz or Barnwell. They seem like dime a dozen types while I couldn't figure out who IIRC is.
Oh, IIRC just means "if I recall correctly."
I can't account for your impression of either, not knowing what you saw, but you might value their opinions if you read them for a bit, simply because they're both right a lot. And they watch more games than either of us, if that's your preferred knowledge metric.
He is throwing the ball away more, but he's actually doing it less often when he seems like he doesn't need to.
Boy, it sure doesn't seem this way to me. It seems like he's doing it preemptively more and more, presumably because he doesn't trust himself to evade it. Which is prudent, but is exactly the kind of thing a smart aging player does to account for their declining skills.
That's why it seems to me to be more a product of less time and nobody open. Avoiding negative plays has always been a major focal point for him, and it is sometimes frustrating to watch. There's been people saying for years at certain points that he's on the decline, and it was inevitable to happen this year when anyone who follows the team knew the offense was going to be a struggle. Sometimes he will make a throw, and the instant reaction was where the hell was he throwing it. Then you come to find out the receiver was in the wrong spot.
Sure, this is all true. Football teams are complicated machines, which is as much an argument for spreading credit around in the good times as it is for absolving an individual of blame in the bad ones. Can't be just one or the other, though.
The key thing, for me, is that all of this stuff is potentially true of any struggling QB. Explanations that could apply to anyone are always a little suspect, because they're hard to falsify (usually by design). Ditto any explanation that posits a lot of mistakes consistently happening on just one side of the equation. Regardless, this is why I've tried to note examples of throwing behind receivers or at the feet, since those kinds of mistakes are usually a little clearer. Or as clear as it's gonna be in a sport as interconnected as football.
and that's why I don't want to rush to judge when I've seen it before and it was predictable for this year. All that said, he has missed throws and has shown visible frustration for most of the season.
He's definitely seemed more frustrated than usual, though that fits any interpretation.
Like I said, maybe he'll switch teams and we'll see the situation a bit more clearly. But I'm good placing my bets now: Father Time, in his customary knockout, albeit a round later than in previous generations since QBs all seem to get a few extra years these days.