Do you think a superhero movie will ever win a Best Picture Oscar?

I say no

Yes, I do. Eventually as that's where movies are going. I blame Spielberg

why spielberg?

Doubt it.
And it has little to do with Spielberg, but rather the studios need to pump out endless additions to a franchise to make more money.

If LOTR can win an Oscar, so can Marvel.

No. Even Logan, as impressive as it might have been, was only nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay.

The Oscars are just a popularity contest, so, sure, if it reaches a certain level of popularity with the Academy voters, then sure, it will win an Oscar for best picture eventually.

Because he perfected making movies big, dumb, and sentimental. He and Lucas killed the golden age of 70s cinema. He gave us spectacle simplified, the cinematic cheeseburger perfected, weaponized, insidious, greasy, cheesey, and irresistible.

Easily.

If we talking all kinds of superhero flicks then yes. The Dark Knight or Joker esque kind of movies I could definitely see win.

The Endgame Deadpool & Wolverine kind of stuff I’d say no.

Counterpoint: maybe Spielberg and Lucas just instinctively knew what many moviegoers were craving, and gave it to them/us.

There's great art, and then there's stuff that's not too dumb, but for the masses.

I can straddle the divide, but not everyone can. Preston Sturges kind of made the same point in Sullivan's Travels.

I mean if they do a live action Akira correctly it's possible

Ever is a long time, so sure.

I think maybe the more interesting variant is what will have to happen for this to take place. And my answer there would be: continued decrease in interest in the Oscars combined with generational turnover in the voting body, leading to something a lot more like the Grammys, where they mostly lose the pretense of genuine critical appraisal and become more like a crowdpleasing variety show.

you don't like jaws, schindler's list or saving private ryan?

I love them.

I don’t think so.

That would be a live-action supervillain movie.

Well, Black Panther was one of the nominates in 2019 for Best Film, I'm sure Disney can get another film there.

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https://youtu.be/nr1A7MO-eIs?si=8GegXqVCn-qrVDgn

There will be an Oscar when they finally make the Matter-Eater-Lad movie!
(Or, I predict a supporting actor award in the sequel to the Arm-Fall-Off-Boy movie.)

It was mostly a joke, mostly...Spielberg and Lucas ushered in the era of big block busters with simplified stories of super villains and heroic saviors all done up with a moral message for the audience. Those type of films are still with us in superhero movies. Which is probably why people today need their movies to deliver the type of messages they agree with. Back before Star Wars and E.T...movies were more balanced with more movies being made for discerning adults. Since Spielberg and Lucas hit the big screen, movies have increasingly been made like entertainment parks.

I'm waiting for the Ladybird superhero movie to come out. I only found out that was a real thing yesterday as I was looking for info on the Ladybird web browser.