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Originally Posted by Purandara88
I've been watching him since he came up, his range is massively reduced from what it was in the mid-late 90s, when he was probably the best defensive outfielder in the history of the game (that he remains far and away the most intimidating defensive presence in baseball, despite losing 3 steps, is a testament to just how transcendent his talent really is).
Originally Posted by Purandara88
'99 was the first year that Andruw really started gaining weight (my guess: 'roids, keep in mind that '98 was the year that really kicked off the modern steroids era).
Originally Posted by Purandara88
It's worth noting that in 1998, the year before Andruw began to put on weight and his speed declined, he had 8 triples to Womack's 7 (usually a very good indicator of pure speed).
Most leaders are fast, sure, but triples contain far more mitigating factors than stolen bases. Also, 8-to-7 is essentially a dead heat for a phenomenon that isn't likely to happen in any given game.
Originally Posted by Purandara88
Jones also hit in the middle of the lineup at every stage. No one runs as much with their cleanup guy as they do with their leadoff guy.
Originally Posted by Purandara88
Not if they're middle of the order guys. The game just isn't played that way.
Originally Posted by Purandara88
However, here's probably the best evidence of Bobby Cox's reluctance to run:
Deion Sanders was in the early 90s the fastest man in the NFL, which certainly makes him faster than any baseball player of his time. I think we can all agree he was faster than Tony Womack or Luis Castillo. I mean we're talking about a guy who had 14 triples and an inside-the-park home run in 1992...in 303 ABs.
In Deion's time with the Braves, he averaged a stolen base every 4.1 times he reached base. Tony Womack, during the four most prolific years of his career ('96-'99), averaged a stolen base every 3.7 times on base, a rate approximately 11% higher than that the man who was very possibly the fastest player in the history of the game.
Deion Sanders was in the early 90s the fastest man in the NFL, which certainly makes him faster than any baseball player of his time. I think we can all agree he was faster than Tony Womack or Luis Castillo. I mean we're talking about a guy who had 14 triples and an inside-the-park home run in 1992...in 303 ABs.
In Deion's time with the Braves, he averaged a stolen base every 4.1 times he reached base. Tony Womack, during the four most prolific years of his career ('96-'99), averaged a stolen base every 3.7 times on base, a rate approximately 11% higher than that the man who was very possibly the fastest player in the history of the game.
Making this comparison with stolen bases is misleading, however, because Deion was caught more often than Womack, and the topic at hand is Cox's alleged aversion to the running game. Steal attempts, then, is more accurate. If we measure the times Deion was allowed to steal, rather than the the times he was successful, the ratio drops from 4.1 to 3.0. Womack's drops from 3.7 to 3.1; nearly identical.
Originally Posted by Purandara88
It's not just having a 'good' fastball (Greg Maddux has a good fastball, he just relies on location and movement rather than velocity), it's a question of having guys who can bring heat. Almost all the recent World Series winners have had starting rotations dominated by hard throwers. Why? Because good teams tend to have more disciplined hitters and the strike zone shrinks in crunch time. You have to be able to pitch in the strike zone and get away with it.
You made a very good point about luck, but the truth is, teams are a lot more likely to get lucky when a pitcher tops out at 88 than when he's throwing 96, because they're going to put a hell of a lot more balls in play.
You made a very good point about luck, but the truth is, teams are a lot more likely to get lucky when a pitcher tops out at 88 than when he's throwing 96, because they're going to put a hell of a lot more balls in play.
I don't think it's quite as empirical as you're saying, however. You mention Maddux, and clearly, he's an exception to your rule. The Braves of the 90s saw remarkable postseason success with two of their three big starters lacking an overpowering fastball.
we were talking, in the conversation some where, I said, 
